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2007  A Year of Corrections?

 

 

 
 

Senators begin work on new China trade bill

03-27-07
The US Senate Finance Committee began drawing up legislation Tuesday intended to allow the country to take stronger action against Beijing amid continuing concerns about America's trade deficit with China, Reuters reported. "We're trying to come up with legislation that is WTO-consistent," said Senator Charles Schumer, who is working with counterparts Lindsey Graham, Max Baucus and Charles Grassley. Schumer and Graham have spent much of the last two years trying to push through legislation threatening a 27.5% tariff on all US imports from China unless steps are taken to raise the value of the yuan. China critics argue that the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40%, giving Chinese companies an unfair trade advantage. Schumer and Graham abandoned their bill to work with Baucus and Grassley, the current and former Finance Committee chairmen, respectively. It is thought they might push for the Commerce Department to be empowered to impose punitive duties on subsidized products from non-market economies like China

 


03-22-07
Chinese stocks hit record high
Just weeks after the February slump, Chinese stocks rose to a record high Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 25.18 points to reach 3,057.38 and break the previous high set on February 26, the day before the market plunged 8.8%, its largest single-day loss in a decade. The gains, which came on the heels of Beijing strengthening rules to stop listed companies from using the proceeds from share sales to purchase stocks, was led by real estate companies. The bump in this sector was a response to speculation that the central bank will raise interest rates at a faster pace. Property companies would benefit from this as their holdings are denominated in local currency. The interest rate rumors were good for banks, too, as they also have considerable yuan-denominated assets.

 

  
Yuan hits new high on global dollar weakness  
Thursday, March 22, 2007 3:54:09 AM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters NewsRTRS

SHANGHAI, March 22 (Reuters) - The yuan. closed higher after hitting a post-revaluation peak against the dollar on Thursday, as the U.S. currency came under pressure globally on expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Soon after the market opened, the yuan broke through the 7.7300 level for the first time since it was revalued and depegged from the dollar in July 2005.

It stayed above that level throughout the day and closed at 7.7266 versus the dollar, after hitting a fresh post-revaluation intraday high of 7.7256 in late trade.

Traders attributed the strength of the Chinese currency to overall weakness in the dollar, which was bogged down by a Fed statement, issued after its two-day meeting ended on Wednesday, that dropped a reference to possible further rate hikes.

The dollar hovered near a two-year low against the euro.

Although the Fed said inflation was still its main concern, investors took the change in the statement as a sign that a rate cut may be near, and therefore trimmed their holdings of the dollar.

"The new post-revaluation high today was pretty much expected, given a soft dollar globally," said a dealer with a major Shenzhen bank.

Before trading began in the morning, the People's Bank of China set the yuan's daily mid-point at 7.7310, the strongest level since the currency revaluation and surpassing 7.7355 the previous day. The central bank's mid-point serves to direct the currency's daily movements.

 

 

GUATEMALA CITY, March 20 (Reuters) - China will stop stockpiling its massive foreign reserves, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in an interview published on Tuesday.

"Many people say that foreign exchange reserves in China are (already) large enough," Zhou told the Emerging Markets magazine, whose latest issue was released at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank in Guatemala.

"We do not intend to go further and accumulate reserves," Zhou said, adding the government will "cut a small piece of reserves" for a new agency to be set up by China's central bank and finance ministry to manage its massive foreign reserves, which have swollen because of the trade surplus.

He said the agency would begin operating this year and focus on profitability and absorbing liquidity, although he did not say how much money would be passed to it.

China's premier, Wen Jiabao, said last week that plans to form a new agency to invest part of the country's swollen foreign exchange reserves, the world's biggest at more than $1 trillion, would not have an adverse impact on the U.S. dollar.

China's central bank also said last week it would not significantly adjust the composition of those reserves. A large part of them are denominated in dollars.

As the reserves have ballooned on the back of China's record trade surpluses, demands have grown for part of the hoard to be invested more aggressively.

Investors have long fretted over Beijing's plans to diversify its foreign exchange investments because of their potential impact on global markets.

Studies have shown investment by China and other Asian countries in U.S. bonds has reduced long-term American interest rates by as much as 2 percentage points.

The original interview with Zhou can be found at www.emergingmarkets.org

 

 

 

 

Index reaches near record

03-20-07
China's main share index on Monday rose to within striking distance of a record high, just three weeks after its biggest fall in a decade which was followed by market downturns on a global scale. The Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) rose 2.9% to 3,014.44, within reach of its record high of 3,049.77 reached on February 27th, the Financial Times reported. The rise came after an increase in central interest rates over the weekend meant to cool the country's growing economy. This is only the second time the SCI has closed above 3,000. Analysts say the latest move underscores the persistent optimism in the markets on the expectation of continued strong economic growth.

 

Purchase of US treasuries to continue

March 13, 2007


China will keep buying US Treasuries after a new state investment agency begins operations to help the nation manage its US$1.07 trillion foreign-exchange reserves, according to central bank vice governor Wu Xiaoling, state media reported. The government has said that it wants to invest its reserves to support an economy that grew 10.7% in 2006, without causing large swings in global markets. The dollar slumped 1% against the euro in the week ended Nov. 11 after central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he plans to diversify holdings, as any movement by China out of its dollar assets would have a tremendous impact on the US currency. A timeframe for setting up the new reserves agency has yet to be set.

 

         

 

US senators aim for "veto-proof" China forex bill  
Wednesday, March 28, 2007 3:25:54 PM (GMT-06:00)
Provided by: Reuters NewsRTRS
By Doug Palmer

WASHINGTON, March 28 (Reuters) - Two leading U.S. Senate critics of China's currency policy said on Wednesday they expected Congress to pass a "veto-proof" bill forcing Beijing to raise the value of its yuan <CNY=>us;CNY against the dollar.

Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, told reporters the bill would be carefully crafted to abide by World Trade Organization rules while forcing "the Chinese to do something they won't do on their own."

Schumer and Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, testified before the Senate Finance Committee on what they see as the need for legislation to force China to allow a greater appreciation in the yuan.

Schumer told reporters it was clear Congress could not rely on the Bush administration to get China to move.

"Well-crafted legislation -- WTO-compliant and strong and effective -- is likely to pass with a veto-proof margin during this Congress," Schumer told the panel. "That's the message I hope the Chinese and the Bush administration take away from this hearing."

The bill would have to have two-thirds support in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate to protect it against a veto by President George W. Bush, as that is how many votes are required for Congress to override a presidential veto.

Schumer and Graham pushed legislation through much of 2005 and 2006 threatening to impose a 27.5 percent tariff on imports from China unless that country took steps to significantly raise the value of its currency against the dollar.

Many lawmakers and manufacturers believe the Chinese yuan is undervalued by up to 40 percent, giving Chinese companies an unfair price advantage in international trade.

Schumer and Graham abandoned their bill after agreeing to work this year with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, and former committee Chairman Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, on joint legislation.

"Today's hearing showed that China must change its currency regime, and it is capable of doing so. Failing to accelerate exchange rate reform is bad for China, bad for America and bad for the global economy," Baucus said after the hearing.

Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, told the panel that China should gradually move to a freely floating currency at a rate of 3 percent to 5 percent per year.

But Chinese currency reform by itself will not fix the massive U.S. trade deficit which is driven by other factors, such as the low U.S. savings rate, Roach said.

Morris Goldstein, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said China should immediately raise the value of its currency by 10-15 percent as a "down payment" toward further reform.

The U.S. Treasury Department also should formally label China as a "currency manipulator" in its semi-annual currency report, which would make clear the United States' desire for faster action on the issue, Goldstein said.

"The 6.5 percent appreciation of the RMB (renminbi) against the U.S. dollar since June 2005 has not even been sufficient to halt the cumulative improvement in China's competitiveness over the 2002-2007 period -- much less to make a real dent in China's huge external surplus," he said.

Graham told reporters the senators were working with the Bush administration to get them to be more aggressive. Asked if he thought U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's strategic economic dialogue with China was yielding any results on currency reform, he answered "no."

"The goal ... is to get the administration off the sidelines, quit playing referee and become an advocate" for fairer trade with the Chinese, Graham said.

There is a consensus among both Republican and Democratic lawmakers that China's currency practices are having a "devastating" impact on U.S. manufacturers, he said.

Schumer was more critical of Bush administration efforts to prod China on the currency issue.

"I think it's pretty clear that we've given up on the administration. Secretary Paulson is a good man, but he's climbing up the same mountain that everyone else did, which is a lot of nice talk and not much action," Schumer said.

Neither senator offered any details on how their bill would confront China's currency regime. They said they would meet with U.S. Treasury officials in April to get their views and craft legislation over the next several months.

 

Forex investment agency won't dull dollar appetite

03-12-07


The establishment of a state investment agency to generate better returns on China's foreign currency reserves does not mean the country will stop buying US Treasuries, said central bank Vice Governor Wu Xiaoling. About three-quarters of China's US$1 trillion-plus forex is believed to be held in US dollar-denominated assets, partly due to Beijing's efforts to retain tight control of the yuan. Speaking at a meeting of central bank governors from the Group of 10 nations, Wu added that no timeframe had been set for creating the agency, Bloomberg reported. Finance Minister Jin Renqing officially announced the new body to manage a portion of China's US$1 trillion-plus forex reserves at the National People's Congress on Friday. He said the reserves would be managed prudently but also with profitability and ! efficiency in mind, the Financial Times reported. Jin added that the agency will be modeled in part on Temasek, the investment arm of the Singaporean government. It is thought that Lou Jiwei, a former vice-minister of finance, will run the agency with an initial quota of US$300 million.

Jan 31, 2007

Paulson told Congress the Bush administration is doing all it can to get China to move more quickly on currency reform. (Statement, PDF)  10:40 a.m.

 

China begins operating first oil reserve

Jan 30, 2007

China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the United States, has begun operation on its first strategic oil reserves, according to state media reports. The base, located in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, is the first of four such facilities to be constructed in the country. The other three reserves will be located in Daishan, Zhejiang; Huangdao, Shandong province; and Dalian, Liaoning province. Progress reports on the completion of the bases have not yet been released. China imported 145.18 million tons of crude oil last year, making it the world's third-largest oil importer after the US and Japan. The nation's coal reserve was 144 million tons by the end of last year.

 

Top legislator warns of stock market "bubble"

Jan 31, 2007

National People's Congress vice-chairman Cheng Siwei warned that China's stock market could be overheating, the Financial Times reported. "There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks," Cheng said. "But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing." The Shanghai Index rose 130% last year and the rally is ongoing. Authorities are trying to reduce stock market speculation. The China Banking Regulatory Commission is clamping down on people who use personal loans and credit cards to buy stocks.

 

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01/05/07